Kalshi settled its October 1, 2026 government shutdown contract as No at 14:07 UTC on October 1. Its Yes settlement value is $0. Polymarket still showed both related contracts open at October 1, 2026 at 20:32 UTC, with Yes outcome prices of 0.30% for an operational shutdown and 0.40% for an appropriations lapse. Those open prices are not settled results.
October 2 settlement update
October 2 settlement update: Kalshi and both Polymarket October 1 contracts have resolved as No. Polymarket closed its operational-shutdown contract at 06:01:27 UTC and its appropriations-lapse contract at 06:03:24 UTC on October 2, 2026. Both feeds report resolved status, Yes at $0, No at $1, and orders disabled. There is no live spread for these settled contracts.
| Contract | Kalshi result | Polymarket result | Settlement value | Cross-venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operational shutdown on October 1 | Finalized No | Resolved No; closed | Yes $0; No $1 on Polymarket. Kalshi Yes settlement $0. | Not applicable; both contracts settled |
| Federal appropriations lapse at midnight on October 1 | No comparable contract on this page | Resolved No; closed | Yes $0; No $1 on Polymarket | Not applicable; contract settled |
The earlier opening paragraph records the October 1 check. The price snapshots, open-status descriptions, and previous table below are historical. Use the settled results above for these October 1 contracts. For markets accepting new orders, check the Kairos market dashboard.
Historical introduction: the next two callouts preserve the September 22 and September 30 snapshots. Kalshi has since finalized its contract. The table and status paragraphs below report the October 1 check; no live Kalshi spread remains for this deadline.
Government shutdown odds make No the favorite for October 1, 2026: 99% on Kalshi and 98.60% on Polymarket as of September 22, 2026 at 20:37 UTC. Kalshi's Yes contract last traded at 1.00 cent. Polymarket priced the comparable operational shutdown contract at 1.40 cents. These are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts or trading advice.
Price update: Government shutdown odds put No at 99.00% on Kalshi and 99.55% on Polymarket as of September 30, 2026 at 20:33 UTC. The opening paragraph records the September 22 snapshot. The refreshed table below uses Kalshi last trades and Polymarket displayed outcome prices. The operational contracts have different cutoff times, so the 0.55-point gap is not an executable arbitrage quote.
Both venues listed contracts tied to the September 30 funding deadline. Kalshi has now finalized its contract as No. Polymarket still showed its two contracts open at this check. Kairos puts venue books together so traders can compare event wording, status, and available orders. Check the live Kairos market dashboard for current books.
What are the government shutdown odds right now?
Kalshi finalized the operational shutdown contract as No, with a $0 Yes settlement value. Polymarket displayed 0.30% for its operational contract and 0.40% for its broader appropriations-lapse contract as of October 1, 2026 at 20:32 UTC. Both Polymarket contracts remained open in the returned feed. A settlement payout and an open contract price cannot produce a live cross-venue spread.
Historical October 1 table. Polymarket has since resolved both contracts as No and disabled orders. The following prices record the earlier open market; the October 2 settlement table above gives the final results.
| Contract | Kalshi price | Polymarket price | Implied probability | Cross-venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operational shutdown on October 1 | Settled No; Yes payout $0 | 0.30 cents; open | 0.30% on Polymarket; Kalshi settled | Not applicable: Kalshi finalized |
| Federal appropriations lapse at midnight on October 1 | No comparable contract | 0.40 cents; open | 0.40% on Polymarket; result unconfirmed | Not applicable |
The table uses Kalshi's finalized result and settlement value, alongside Polymarket's displayed outcome prices from this run. Kalshi's former last trade is historical and is no longer a live quote. The Kalshi contract price explainer shows how contract prices and payouts connect. Compare the implied probability explainer before reading an open price as a probability.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different shutdown odds?
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different government shutdown odds because traders use separate order books and the venues define the event differently. Kalshi checks whether the government is at least partially shut down at 10:00 a.m. ET on October 1. Polymarket's operational contract runs through 11:59 p.m. ET and excludes a technical funding lapse that leaves agencies operating normally.
Polymarket's second market covers a broader outcome. It resolves Yes for a partial or full appropriations lapse of any duration at 12:00 a.m. ET on October 1, even without an operational shutdown. That wording explains why its two Polymarket prices should not be treated as duplicates. Traders comparing venues need to match the resolution criteria before comparing cents.
Where can traders trade government shutdown markets?
Kalshi has settled its October 1 operational-shutdown contract as No. Polymarket still showed an open operational-shutdown contract and a separate open appropriations-lapse contract at this check. Kairos gives traders one screen for venue books. Check whether a contract is accepting orders before comparing prices or attempting to trade it.
Kalshi says it charges transaction fees based on expected contract earnings, and some markets can use different fee schedules. Polymarket's fee documentation says geopolitical and world-events markets carry no trading fee. Venue rules and fee schedules can change, so traders should review the order ticket and current fee page before placing an order.
Polymarket offers the extra lapse-only contract. Kalshi tested government status at 10:00 a.m. ET and has published its No result. Traders can review how Polymarket contracts work, then inspect open books on Kairos data. Match the deadline, contract status, and settlement rules before sending an order.
How do the October 1 shutdown markets resolve?
Kalshi resolves Yes if the federal government is at least partially shut down because of a lapse in appropriations at 10:00 a.m. ET on October 1, 2026. Its rule says the market resolves Yes when the government is "at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations." Kalshi points to formal OMB directives and OPM operating-status notices as qualifying evidence.
Polymarket's operational contract requires agencies to suspend non-excepted operations by 11:59 p.m. ET on October 1. Its rules say, "Partial shutdowns qualify." A technical lapse does not count when agencies continue normal or substantially normal operations. Polymarket names official federal information, including OPM, as its primary resolution source.
Polymarket's lapse contract uses a wider test. Its rules say, "A lapse of any duration affecting any portion" of the federal government qualifies. Traders should choose the outcome they intend to trade, because an overnight technical lapse could resolve that contract Yes while the operational-shutdown contracts resolve No. Contract text controls settlement.
How should traders read a shutdown market price?
A Yes contract priced at 1.00 cent represents roughly a 1.00% market-implied probability before fees. The contract pays according to the venue's settlement rules, and a trader can close a position before resolution when another participant takes the other side. Thin books, wide spreads, fees, and rule differences can all affect the executable price.
Traders should use the displayed percentage as a live market consensus, not a promise about Washington. Orders can fill above or below the last trade, and the probability can change with every funding vote, OMB notice, or congressional agreement. Compare the bid and ask before treating the last price as executable. See you in the order books.
Kairos also tracks long-dated event markets through 2027 Oscar odds, Heisman odds, and NFL Super Bowl odds. Each page compares verified venue prices and the rules that control settlement.
Sources
Kalshi October 1 shutdown market Kalshi fee documentation Polymarket October 1 shutdown market Polymarket October 1 appropriations-lapse market Polymarket fee documentation Kalshi public event API Polymarket operational shutdown API Polymarket appropriations-lapse API