Learn
How prediction markets actually work: pricing, liquidity, execution, and risk. The mechanics behind turning a view on an event into a trade that survives fees and the order book.
All explainers
NBBO for Prediction Markets and Why It Does Not Exist Yet
Equities have an NBBO: one consolidated best bid and offer across every exchange, enforced by regulation. Prediction markets have isolated order books per venue, so the same event trades at different prices. What that gap costs traders, and how a synthetic NBBO gets built.
Austin Kennedy
7 min read
The Implied Probability Calculator, Formula, and 2026 Conversion Chart
The implied probability formula for American, decimal, and fractional odds, a calculator that removes the vig, a 2026 conversion chart, and why prediction market prices skip the conversion.
Austin Kennedy
9 min read
One Account for Every Prediction Market
Kairos is one account for Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun. Trade every major prediction market without separate KYC, split capital, or multiple withdrawal flows.
Austin Kennedy
5 min read
Hyperliquid Prediction Markets: How HIP-4 Works
Hyperliquid prediction markets are HIP-4 outcome contracts that settle at 0 or 1 in USDC. How they price, settle, and compare to Polymarket and Kalshi.
Austin Kennedy
6 min read