Oscar odds make The Odyssey the 2027 Best Picture favorite at 49% on Kalshi and 47% on Polymarket as of October 1, 2026 at 20:32 UTC. Its 2 percentage point spread is the widest among the seven exact-title matches in the refreshed table. These are last-trade market-implied probabilities before fees; current bid, ask, and depth determine an executable order.
Historical introduction: the following paragraph records the September 24 snapshot. Use the October 1 table for refreshed prices.
Oscar odds make The Odyssey the 2027 Best Picture favorite at 50% on Kalshi and 48% on Polymarket as of September 24, 2026 at 20:32 UTC. The Debut carries the widest cross-venue spread among the seven exact-title matches below at 2.2 percentage points. These are market-implied probabilities, not predictions, recommendations, or trading advice.
Kalshi and Polymarket both list contracts for the film that wins Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards. Each film trades in its own order book. Kairos puts both venue books in one terminal so traders can compare the same title, price, and settlement rule before placing an order. Check Kairos data because prices and available size can change after this timestamp.
What are the Oscar odds right now?
The Odyssey led both verified snapshots at 49 cents on Kalshi and 47 cents on Polymarket. Dune: Part Three followed at 10 cents and 11 cents. The Debut last traded at 2 cents on Kalshi and 0.8 cents on Polymarket. Compare the refreshed seven-contract table below with the latest executable order books.
| Contract | Kalshi price | Polymarket price | Implied probability | Cross-venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 49.00 cents | 47.00 cents | 49.00% Kalshi, 47.00% Polymarket | 2.00 percentage points |
| Dune: Part Three | 10.00 cents | 11.00 cents | 10.00% Kalshi, 11.00% Polymarket | 1.00 percentage points |
| Digger | 1.00 cents | 0.50 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 0.50% Polymarket | 0.50 percentage points |
| Wild Horse Nine | 4.00 cents | 3.10 cents | 4.00% Kalshi, 3.10% Polymarket | 0.90 percentage points |
| The Debut | 2.00 cents | 0.80 cents | 2.00% Kalshi, 0.80% Polymarket | 1.20 percentage points |
| Fjord | 1.00 cents | 1.20 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 1.20% Polymarket | 0.20 percentage points |
| Project Hail Mary | 1.00 cents | 0.90 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 0.90% Polymarket | 0.10 percentage points |
The table uses the last completed trade returned by each venue public event feed. A 50-cent Yes contract represents a 50% market-implied probability before fees. Last trade is historical. The current bid, ask, and available quantity determine the next fill. The implied probability explainer connects contract cents to a one-dollar settlement value.
Where can traders trade Oscar markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket both carry named-film contracts for the 2027 Best Picture winner. Kalshi's event uses individual Yes or No contracts under one Best Picture event. Polymarket lists named outcomes under its 2027 Best Picture event. The two feeds do not use identical title lists, so this table includes only seven film names that matched exactly.
Both venues publish fee documentation, and Polymarket marks this event with its culture fee schedule. Traders should inspect the live order ticket before placing an order. A gap between completed trades can close inside the bid-ask spread or after fees. The spread is a comparison signal, not a promised executable return.
Kairos combines Kalshi and Polymarket books with execution beside the comparison. Traders can also compare long-dated markets through Premier League odds, Champions League odds, and Heisman odds. Named contracts, current books, and the rules that decide settlement.
How do the 2027 Best Picture markets resolve?
Kalshi resolves each named contract against the Best Picture winner at the 99th Academy Awards. Its rule for the favorite states: "If The Odyssey has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes." The other named-film contracts use the same test with the listed title.
Polymarket resolves the event according to the listed film that wins Best Picture. Its rules state: "If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to No." Polymarket names official Academy Awards and AMPAS information as its primary source.
Polymarket's rule sends the event to Other if no winner is declared by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 p.m. ET. It also resolves a tied award to the listed film whose title comes first alphabetically. Kalshi's named-film rule does not repeat those edge conditions in the same language. Traders need to read both rule cards before comparing prices.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different Oscar odds?
Traders submit orders to separate books, so bids, asks, depth, and completed trades differ. The Odyssey showed a 2 percentage point gap between last trades in this snapshot. The Debut differed by 1.2 percentage points. Neither gap proves that both sides can be executed at those exact prices because quotes and available quantity can move first.
Match the film title, award category, ceremony year, and settlement language before comparing cents. Best Picture winner contracts are separate from nomination markets and from acting or directing awards. Event contracts carry real market risk. Kairos keeps the books and order flow in one workflow. Start trading on Kairos.
Sources
Kalshi 2027 Best Picture market Kalshi public event API Polymarket 2027 Best Picture market Polymarket public event API Kalshi fee documentation Polymarket fee documentation