Heisman odds make Darian Mensah the favorite at 17% on Kalshi and 8% on Polymarket as of September 11, 2026 at 20:34 UTC. His 9 percentage point cross-venue spread is the widest among the six matched players below. These prices are market-implied probabilities, not predictions, recommendations, or trading advice.
Kalshi and Polymarket both list winner contracts for the 2026 Heisman Trophy. Separate order books produce different last trades, even when the player and award match. Kairos puts both books on one screen. Check Kairos data before placing an order because every price can move after this timestamp.
What are the Heisman odds right now?
Darian Mensah led both verified snapshots. His Kalshi contract last traded at 17 cents, while the matching Polymarket contract last traded at 8 cents. CJ Carr and Arch Manning followed at 8 cents on Kalshi. Polymarket's next highest matched last trade was Dante Moore at 7 cents.
| Contract | Kalshi price | Polymarket price | Implied probability | Cross-venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darian Mensah | 17.00 cents | 8.00 cents | 17.00% Kalshi, 8.00% Polymarket | 9.00 percentage points |
| Dante Moore | 6.00 cents | 7.00 cents | 6.00% Kalshi, 7.00% Polymarket | 1.00 percentage point |
| Jeremiah Smith | 7.00 cents | 6.00 cents | 7.00% Kalshi, 6.00% Polymarket | 1.00 percentage point |
| Julian Sayin | 7.00 cents | 5.20 cents | 7.00% Kalshi, 5.20% Polymarket | 1.80 percentage points |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 6.00 cents | 5.00 cents | 6.00% Kalshi, 5.00% Polymarket | 1.00 percentage point |
| Malachi Toney | 7.00 cents | 4.10 cents | 7.00% Kalshi, 4.10% Polymarket | 2.90 percentage points |
The table uses each venue's last trade from its public event feed. A 17-cent Yes contract represents a 17% market-implied probability before fees. Last trade does not equal the next executable price. Traders should check the live bid and ask. The Kalshi price explainer shows how contract prices and one-dollar payouts connect.
Where can traders trade college football award markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket both carry named-player contracts for the 2026 Heisman winner. Kalshi's public event contained 36 active player contracts at this read. Polymarket's live event contained 29. Coverage differs, so a player available on one venue may have no matched contract on the other.
Kalshi publishes a price-based transaction fee method and displays the charge before confirmation. Polymarket publishes market-specific fee information in its documentation and event records. Traders should compare the current order ticket with the visible spread. A 1 percentage point gap can disappear after fees or a one-cent move.
Kairos aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket books for faster comparison and execution. Follow the related NFL playoff odds and NFL Super Bowl odds pages for two season-long football markets. Named contracts. Current books. One terminal.
How does the 2026 Heisman market resolve?
Kalshi resolves a player contract Yes if that player wins the College Football Heisman Trophy in the 2026-2027 season. Its Mensah rule states: "If Darian Mensah wins the College Football Heisman Trophy in the 2026-2027 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes." The other player contracts use the same test with the listed name.
Polymarket resolves the event to the winner announced for the 2026 Heisman Trophy. Its rules say: "If multiple players are declared co-winners, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically." Polymarket also assigns the event to Other if no winner is announced by December 26, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET under the stated conditions.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different Heisman odds?
Separate traders place orders on separate books. That produces different bids, asks, depth, and last trades. Mensah's 9 point gap was much larger than the matched gaps on Moore, Smith, Sayin, Chambliss, and Toney. The current bid and ask matter more than a stale last trade when a trader wants to execute.
Traders also need to match the season and settlement language. Both events cover the 2026 award, but Polymarket includes a co-winner rule and an Other outcome. Contract text controls the payout. Compare the book, read the rule, then choose the venue.
A useful comparison starts with matched names and ends with the live book. The 9 point Mensah spread describes two completed trades at one timestamp. It does not prove that a trader can buy on one venue and sell on the other at those prices. Available quantity, current asks, current bids, fees, and account access determine whether any spread can be executed. Kairos gives active traders the venue data and order flow in one place. Start trading on Kairos.
Sources
Kalshi 2026 Heisman market Kalshi public event API Polymarket 2026 Heisman market Polymarket public event API Kalshi fee documentation Polymarket fee documentation