Heisman odds make Darian Mensah the favorite at 26% on Kalshi and 25% on Polymarket as of September 19, 2026 at 20:32 UTC. Malachi Toney has the widest cross-venue spread among the six matched players below at 4 percentage points. These prices are market-implied probabilities, not predictions, recommendations, or trading advice.
October 3 market update
Jeremiah Smith leads Heisman odds at 25% on Kalshi and 35% on Polymarket, as of October 3, 2026 at 20:33 UTC. Smith has the widest spread among the six matched players at 10 percentage points. The opening paragraph records the September 19 snapshot. The table below contains the refreshed last trades from both venues, with each spread calculated from those prices. The dated opening is retained as a historical snapshot. Use the October 3 table for this refresh; last trades can differ from executable bids and asks.
Kalshi and Polymarket both list winner contracts for the 2026 Heisman Trophy. Separate order books produce different last trades, even when the player and award match. Kairos puts both books on one screen. Check Kairos data before placing an order because every price can move after this timestamp.
What are the Heisman odds right now?
Jeremiah Smith led Kalshi at 25 cents, while his matching Polymarket contract last traded at 35 cents. Darian Mensah traded at 19 cents on both Polymarket and Kalshi in this snapshot. Trinidad Chambliss traded at 8 cents on Kalshi and 6 cents on Polymarket, a 2 percentage point difference.
| Contract | Kalshi price | Polymarket price | Implied probability | Cross-venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darian Mensah | 19.00 cents | 19.00 cents | 19.00% Kalshi, 19.00% Polymarket | 0.00 percentage points |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 8.00 cents | 6.00 cents | 8.00% Kalshi, 6.00% Polymarket | 2.00 percentage points |
| Jeremiah Smith | 25.00 cents | 35.00 cents | 25.00% Kalshi, 35.00% Polymarket | 10.00 percentage points |
| Arch Manning | 3.00 cents | 4.60 cents | 3.00% Kalshi, 4.60% Polymarket | 1.60 percentage points |
| Malachi Toney | 5.00 cents | 8.70 cents | 5.00% Kalshi, 8.70% Polymarket | 3.70 percentage points |
| Gunner Stockton | 5.00 cents | 6.00 cents | 5.00% Kalshi, 6.00% Polymarket | 1.00 percentage points |
The table uses each venue's last trade from its public event feed. A 17-cent Yes contract represents a 17% market-implied probability before fees. Last trade does not equal the next executable price. Traders should check the live bid and ask. The Kalshi price explainer shows how contract prices and one-dollar payouts connect.
Where can traders trade college football award markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket both carry named-player contracts for the 2026 Heisman winner. Kalshi's public event contained 41 active player contracts at this read. Polymarket's live event contained 29. Coverage differs, so a player available on one venue may have no matched contract on the other.
Kalshi publishes a price-based transaction fee method and displays the charge before confirmation. Polymarket publishes market-specific fee information in its documentation and event records. Traders should compare the current order ticket with the visible spread. A 1 percentage point gap can disappear after fees or a one-cent move.
Kairos aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket books for faster comparison and execution. Follow the related NFL playoff odds and NFL Super Bowl odds pages for two season-long football markets. Named contracts. Current books. One terminal.
How does the 2026 Heisman market resolve?
Kalshi resolves a player contract Yes if that player wins the College Football Heisman Trophy in the 2026-2027 season. Its Mensah rule states: "If Darian Mensah wins the College Football Heisman Trophy in the 2026-2027 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes." The other player contracts use the same test with the listed name.
Polymarket resolves the event to the winner announced for the 2026 Heisman Trophy. Its rules say: "If multiple players are declared co-winners, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed name comes first alphabetically." Polymarket also assigns the event to Other if no winner is announced by December 26, 2026 at 11:59 p.m. ET under the stated conditions.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different Heisman odds?
Separate traders place orders on separate books. That produces different bids, asks, depth, and last trades. Jeremiah Smith had the widest matched gap at 10 percentage points. The current bid and ask matter more than a stale last trade when a trader wants to execute.
Traders also need to match the season and settlement language. Both events cover the 2026 award, but Polymarket includes a co-winner rule and an Other outcome. Contract text controls the payout. Compare the book, read the rule, then choose the venue.
A useful comparison starts with matched names and ends with the live book. The 10 point Smith spread describes two completed trades at one timestamp. It does not prove that a trader can buy on one venue and sell on the other at those prices. Available quantity, current asks, current bids, fees, and account access determine whether any spread can be executed. Kairos gives active traders the venue data and order flow in one place. Start trading on Kairos.
Sources
Kalshi 2026 Heisman market Kalshi public event API Polymarket 2026 Heisman market Polymarket public event API Kalshi fee documentation Polymarket fee documentation