MLB MVP odds make Pete Crow-Armstrong the National League favorite at 97.00% on Kalshi and 98.70% on Polymarket as of September 12, 2026 at 20:33 UTC. Yordan Alvarez leads the American League at 92.00% on Kalshi and 91.00% on Polymarket. These are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or trading advice.
Kalshi and Polymarket list separate winner contracts for the American League and National League awards. The split matters. Each league names its own MVP, and each contract settles against that award. Kairos puts both venue books together. Check Kairos data before trading because prices can move after this timestamp.
What are the MLB MVP odds right now?
Pete Crow-Armstrong and Yordan Alvarez led the two MVP races in the verified venue snapshots. Crow-Armstrong last traded at 97.00 cents on Kalshi and 98.70 cents on Polymarket. Alvarez last traded at 92.00 cents on Kalshi and 91.00 cents on Polymarket. Junior Caminero carried the widest matched spread below at 5.50 percentage points.
| Contract | Kalshi price | Polymarket price | Implied probability | Cross-venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong, NL | 97.00 cents | 98.70 cents | 97.00% Kalshi, 98.70% Polymarket | 1.70 percentage points |
| Yordan Alvarez, AL | 92.00 cents | 91.00 cents | 92.00% Kalshi, 91.00% Polymarket | 1.00 percentage point |
| Junior Caminero, AL | 10.00 cents | 4.50 cents | 10.00% Kalshi, 4.50% Polymarket | 5.50 percentage points |
| Bobby Witt Jr., AL | 1.00 cent | 1.90 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 1.90% Polymarket | 0.90 percentage points |
| Shohei Ohtani, NL | 1.00 cent | 0.10 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 0.10% Polymarket | 0.90 percentage points |
| Matt Olson, NL | 1.00 cent | 0.70 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 0.70% Polymarket | 0.30 percentage points |
The table uses each venue's latest completed trade from its public event API. A 97.00-cent Yes contract represents a 97.00% market-implied probability before fees. A last trade can differ from the price available now. The current bid, ask, and size determine execution. The implied probability explainer connects contract cents to a one-dollar settlement value.
Where can traders trade MLB MVP markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket both list named-player contracts for the 2026 AL and NL MVP awards. Kalshi separates each league into its own event. Polymarket does the same. That matching structure supports direct comparison when the same player appears on both venues. A missing player or inactive contract should not be treated as a zero probability.
Kalshi publishes a transaction-fee formula tied to price and contract quantity. Polymarket publishes market-specific fees in its documentation and market records. Traders should inspect the current order ticket on either venue. A visible spread between completed trades can disappear after fees, slippage, or one move in the book.
Kairos aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket data with execution beside the book. The same baseball cluster includes Cy Young odds and MLB World Series odds. Awards and championship futures. Two venue books. One terminal.
How do the 2026 MLB MVP markets resolve?
Kalshi resolves each named contract Yes when that player wins the listed league award. Its Crow-Armstrong rule states: "If Pete Crow-Armstrong wins the Pro Baseball National League MVP in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes." The American League event uses the same named-player test for that league.
Polymarket resolves each event to the player who wins the 2026 American League or National League Most Valuable Player Award. Its published rules state: "If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically." Polymarket names official Major League Baseball information as its resolution source, while allowing a consensus of credible reporting.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different MLB MVP odds?
Kalshi and Polymarket show different MLB MVP odds because separate traders place orders on separate books. Junior Caminero's last trades differed by 5.50 points in this snapshot. Crow-Armstrong's differed by 1.70 points. Those figures compare completed trades at one moment, not guaranteed prices available for matching orders.
Contract wording and league labels must match before price comparison starts. The AL award and NL award are separate outcomes. Current bids, asks, depth, venue fees, and account access determine whether a displayed gap can be traded. Compare the live book, read the rule, then send the order. Start trading on Kairos.
Sources
Kalshi 2026 NL MVP market Kalshi NL public event API Kalshi AL public event API Polymarket 2026 AL MVP market Polymarket 2026 NL MVP market Kalshi fee documentation Polymarket fee documentation