MLB MVP odds make Pete Crow-Armstrong the National League favorite at 99.00% on Kalshi and 98.80% on Polymarket as of September 20, 2026 at 20:32 UTC. Yordan Alvarez leads the American League at 86.00% on Kalshi and 85.60% on Polymarket. These are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or trading advice.
October 4 market update
MLB MVP odds put Pete Crow-Armstrong first in the NL at 99.00% on Kalshi and 99.30% on Polymarket as of October 4, 2026 at 20:32 UTC. Yordan Alvarez leads the AL at 94.00% and 94.90%. Both venues still accept orders on the six matched contracts below. These are last-trade market-implied probabilities before fees.
| Contract | Kalshi price | Polymarket price | Implied probability | Cross-venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong, NL | 99.00 cents | 99.30 cents | 99.00% Kalshi, 99.30% Polymarket | 0.30 percentage points |
| Yordan Alvarez, AL | 94.00 cents | 94.90 cents | 94.00% Kalshi, 94.90% Polymarket | 0.90 percentage points |
| Junior Caminero, AL | 2.00 cents | 4.50 cents | 2.00% Kalshi, 4.50% Polymarket | 2.50 percentage points |
| Shohei Ohtani, NL | 2.00 cents | 1.30 cents | 2.00% Kalshi, 1.30% Polymarket | 0.70 percentage points |
| Munetaka Murakami, AL | 1.00 cents | 0.10 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 0.10% Polymarket | 0.90 percentage points |
| Dillon Dingler, AL | 1.00 cents | 0.10 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 0.10% Polymarket | 0.90 percentage points |
Junior Caminero, AL has the widest last-trade difference in this table at 2.50 percentage points. The spread is the absolute difference between the two returned Yes trade prices. Last trades can occur at different times; a fresh API read does not mean every trade just occurred. Check current bids, asks, and available size in Kairos data before sending an order. These prices are not predictions or recommendations.
The opening paragraph and the September price passages, table, and FAQ answers below record historical snapshots. Use the October 4 table above for this refresh. Prices can change after the timestamp. The implied probability explainer covers the relationship between contract cents and settlement value.
October 4 price sources: Kalshi KXMLBALMVP-26. Kalshi KXMLBNLMVP-26. Polymarket mlb-2026-nl-mvp. Polymarket pro-baseball-2026-al-mvp.
MLB MVP odds make Pete Crow-Armstrong the National League favorite at 99.00% on Kalshi and 98.80% on Polymarket as of September 27, 2026 at 20:32-20:33 UTC. Yordan Alvarez leads the American League at 95.00% and 97.90%. The opening paragraph records the September 20 snapshot. The refreshed table shows market-implied probabilities before fees.
Kalshi and Polymarket list separate winner contracts for the American League and National League awards. The split matters. Each league names its own MVP, and each contract settles against that award. Kairos puts both venue books together. Check Kairos data before trading because prices can move after this timestamp.
What are the MLB MVP odds right now?
Pete Crow-Armstrong and Yordan Alvarez led the two MVP races in the September 27 venue snapshots. Crow-Armstrong last traded at 99.00 cents on Kalshi and 98.80 cents on Polymarket. Alvarez last traded at 95.00 cents on Kalshi and 97.90 cents on Polymarket. Alvarez carried the widest matched spread below at 2.90 percentage points.
| Contract | Kalshi price | Polymarket price | Implied probability | Cross-venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong, NL | 99.00 cents | 98.80 cents | 99.00% Kalshi, 98.80% Polymarket | 0.20 percentage points |
| Yordan Alvarez, AL | 95.00 cents | 97.90 cents | 95.00% Kalshi, 97.90% Polymarket | 2.90 percentage points |
| Junior Caminero, AL | 3.00 cents | 0.80 cents | 3.00% Kalshi, 0.80% Polymarket | 2.20 percentage points |
| Shohei Ohtani, NL | 2.00 cents | 0.40 cents | 2.00% Kalshi, 0.40% Polymarket | 1.60 percentage points |
| Munetaka Murakami, AL | 1.00 cents | 0.10 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 0.10% Polymarket | 0.90 percentage points |
| Dillon Dingler, AL | 1.00 cents | 0.10 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 0.10% Polymarket | 0.90 percentage points |
The table uses each venue's latest completed trade from its public event API. A 97.00-cent Yes contract represents a 97.00% market-implied probability before fees. A last trade can differ from the price available now. The current bid, ask, and size determine execution. The implied probability explainer connects contract cents to a one-dollar settlement value.
Where can traders trade MLB MVP markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket both list named-player contracts for the 2026 AL and NL MVP awards. Kalshi separates each league into its own event. Polymarket does the same. That matching structure supports direct comparison when the same player appears on both venues. A missing player or inactive contract should not be treated as a zero probability.
Kalshi publishes a transaction-fee formula tied to price and contract quantity. Polymarket publishes market-specific fees in its documentation and market records. Traders should inspect the current order ticket on either venue. A visible spread between completed trades can disappear after fees, slippage, or one move in the book.
Kairos aggregates Kalshi and Polymarket data with execution beside the book. The same baseball cluster includes Cy Young odds and MLB World Series odds. Awards and championship futures. Two venue books. One terminal.
How do the 2026 MLB MVP markets resolve?
Kalshi resolves each named contract Yes when that player wins the listed league award. Its Crow-Armstrong rule states: "If Pete Crow-Armstrong wins the Pro Baseball National League MVP in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes." The American League event uses the same named-player test for that league.
Polymarket resolves each event to the player who wins the 2026 American League or National League Most Valuable Player Award. Its published rules state: "If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically." Polymarket names official Major League Baseball information as its resolution source, while allowing a consensus of credible reporting.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different MLB MVP odds?
Kalshi and Polymarket show different MLB MVP odds because separate traders place orders on separate books. Yordan Alvarez's last trades differed by 2.90 points in this snapshot. Crow-Armstrong's differed by 0.20 points. Those figures compare completed trades returned during this check. They do not establish prices available for matching orders.
Contract wording and league labels must match before price comparison starts. The AL award and NL award are separate outcomes. Current bids, asks, depth, venue fees, and account access determine whether a displayed gap can be traded. Compare the live book, read the rule, then send the order. Start trading on Kairos.
Sources
Kalshi 2026 NL MVP market Kalshi NL public event API Kalshi AL public event API Polymarket 2026 AL MVP market Polymarket 2026 NL MVP market Kalshi fee documentation Polymarket fee documentation