Cy Young odds make Cam Schlittler the American League favorite at 97.00% on Kalshi and 98.30% on Polymarket as of September 20, 2026 at 20:32 UTC. Jacob Misiorowski leads the National League at 97.00% on Kalshi and 97.80% on Polymarket. These are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or trading advice.
October 4 market update
Cy Young odds put Cam Schlittler first in the AL at 98.00% on Kalshi and 97.40% on Polymarket as of October 4, 2026 at 20:32 UTC. Jacob Misiorowski leads the NL at 98.00% and 99.60%. Both venues still accept orders on the six matched contracts below. These are last-trade market-implied probabilities before fees.
| Contract | Kalshi price | Polymarket price | Implied probability | Cross-venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler, AL | 98.00 cents | 97.40 cents | 98.00% Kalshi, 97.40% Polymarket | 0.60 percentage points |
| Jacob Misiorowski, NL | 98.00 cents | 99.60 cents | 98.00% Kalshi, 99.60% Polymarket | 1.60 percentage points |
| Dylan Cease, AL | 1.00 cents | 1.70 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 1.70% Polymarket | 0.70 percentage points |
| Parker Messick, AL | 1.00 cents | 0.10 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 0.10% Polymarket | 0.90 percentage points |
| Chris Sale, NL | 1.00 cents | 0.40 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 0.40% Polymarket | 0.60 percentage points |
| Cristopher Sanchez, NL | 2.00 cents | 0.10 cents | 2.00% Kalshi, 0.10% Polymarket | 1.90 percentage points |
Cristopher Sanchez, NL has the widest last-trade difference in this table at 1.90 percentage points. The spread is the absolute difference between the two returned Yes trade prices. Last trades can occur at different times; a fresh API read does not mean every trade just occurred. Check current bids, asks, and available size in Kairos data before sending an order. These prices are not predictions or recommendations.
The opening paragraph and the September price passages, table, and FAQ answers below record historical snapshots. Use the October 4 table above for this refresh. Prices can change after the timestamp. The implied probability explainer covers the relationship between contract cents and settlement value.
October 4 price sources: Kalshi KXMLBALCY-26. Kalshi KXMLBNLCY-26. Polymarket mlb-2026-al-cy-young-winner. Polymarket mlb-2026-nl-cy-young-winner.
Cy Young odds make Cam Schlittler the American League favorite at 98.00% on Kalshi and 96.70% on Polymarket as of September 27, 2026 at 20:32-20:33 UTC. Jacob Misiorowski leads the National League at 98.00% and 98.50%. The opening paragraph records the September 20 snapshot. The refreshed table shows market-implied probabilities before fees.
Kalshi and Polymarket list separate Cy Young winner events for the American League and National League. Each league produces one award outcome. Kairos puts both venue books together so traders can match a pitcher, league, price, and rule. Check Kairos data because the order books can change after this timestamp.
What are the Cy Young odds right now?
Cam Schlittler and Jacob Misiorowski led the verified AL and NL snapshots on September 27. Schlittler last traded at 98.00 cents on Kalshi and 96.70 cents on Polymarket. Misiorowski last traded at 98.00 cents on Kalshi and 98.50 cents on Polymarket. Parker Messick carried the widest matched gap in the table at 1.90 percentage points.
| Contract | Kalshi price | Polymarket price | Implied probability | Cross-venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Schlittler, AL | 98.00 cents | 96.70 cents | 98.00% Kalshi, 96.70% Polymarket | 1.30 percentage points |
| Jacob Misiorowski, NL | 98.00 cents | 98.50 cents | 98.00% Kalshi, 98.50% Polymarket | 0.50 percentage points |
| Dylan Cease, AL | 1.00 cents | 0.50 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 0.50% Polymarket | 0.50 percentage points |
| Parker Messick, AL | 2.00 cents | 0.10 cents | 2.00% Kalshi, 0.10% Polymarket | 1.90 percentage points |
| Chris Sale, NL | 1.00 cents | 0.40 cents | 1.00% Kalshi, 0.40% Polymarket | 0.60 percentage points |
| Cristopher Sanchez, NL | 2.00 cents | 0.40 cents | 2.00% Kalshi, 0.40% Polymarket | 1.60 percentage points |
Each price is the latest completed trade returned by the venue's public event feed. A 94.00-cent Yes contract maps to a 94.00% market-implied probability before fees. Last trade is historical, even when recent. The next executable price sits at the live bid or ask. The implied probability explainer covers contract pricing and settlement value.
Where can traders trade Cy Young markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket both carry named-pitcher contracts for the 2026 AL and NL Cy Young awards. The separate league events make matched comparison possible. Coverage still varies by venue. A pitcher listed on only one book has no valid cross-venue spread, and an inactive contract should never be presented as a current price.
Kalshi publishes a transaction-fee method based on price and quantity. Polymarket publishes fee documentation and market-level fee records. Traders should inspect the live confirmation screen before placing an order. A small last-trade gap can be smaller than the bid-ask spread, and fees can change the all-in comparison.
Kairos aggregates both books and puts execution beside the comparison. Follow MLB MVP odds for the two position-player awards and MLB World Series odds for the championship market. Three season-long baseball entities. One connected cluster.
How do the 2026 Cy Young markets resolve?
Kalshi resolves a named contract Yes when that pitcher wins the listed league's Cy Young award. Its Schlittler rule states: "If Cam Schlittler wins the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes." Kalshi uses the same named-pitcher test across the event.
Polymarket resolves each event to the player who wins the 2026 American League or National League Cy Young Award. Its rules state: "If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically." Polymarket identifies official Major League Baseball information as the resolution source, with credible reporting also permitted.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different Cy Young odds?
Separate order books produce different bids, asks, depth, and completed trades. Parker Messick's verified last trades differed by 1.90 percentage points. Misiorowski's differed by 0.50 points. Neither spread proves that two opposite orders can be executed at those prices. Available size and the live quotes control that result.
Traders must also match the league and settlement rule. An AL contract cannot be compared with an NL contract even when both carry the Cy Young label. Read the rule, inspect the current book, and account for fees before acting. Kairos keeps that work on one screen. Start trading on Kairos.
Sources
Kalshi AL Cy Young public event API Kalshi NL Cy Young public event API Polymarket 2026 AL Cy Young market Polymarket 2026 NL Cy Young market Kalshi fee documentation Polymarket fee documentation