Prediction MarketsSeptember 12, 2026

Cy Young Odds

AK

Austin Kennedy

6 min read

Cy Young odds make Cam Schlittler the American League favorite at 94.00% on Kalshi and 94.70% on Polymarket as of September 12, 2026 at 20:33 UTC. Jacob Misiorowski leads the National League at 92.00% on Kalshi and 91.90% on Polymarket. These are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or trading advice.

Kalshi and Polymarket list separate Cy Young winner events for the American League and National League. Each league produces one award outcome. Kairos puts both venue books together so traders can match a pitcher, league, price, and rule. Check Kairos data because the order books can change after this timestamp.

What are the Cy Young odds right now?

Cam Schlittler and Jacob Misiorowski led the verified AL and NL snapshots. Schlittler last traded at 94.00 cents on Kalshi and 94.70 cents on Polymarket. Misiorowski last traded at 92.00 cents on Kalshi and 91.90 cents on Polymarket. Chris Sale carried the widest matched gap in the table at 2.60 percentage points.

ContractKalshi pricePolymarket priceImplied probabilityCross-venue spread
Cam Schlittler, AL94.00 cents94.70 cents94.00% Kalshi, 94.70% Polymarket0.70 percentage points
Jacob Misiorowski, NL92.00 cents91.90 cents92.00% Kalshi, 91.90% Polymarket0.10 percentage points
Dylan Cease, AL7.00 cents9.30 cents7.00% Kalshi, 9.30% Polymarket2.30 percentage points
Chris Sale, NL3.00 cents5.60 cents3.00% Kalshi, 5.60% Polymarket2.60 percentage points
Cristopher Sanchez, NL2.00 cents3.30 cents2.00% Kalshi, 3.30% Polymarket1.30 percentage points
Tarik Skubal, AL1.00 cent0.20 cents1.00% Kalshi, 0.20% Polymarket0.80 percentage points
Live venue prices fetched September 12, 2026 at 20:33 UTC

Each price is the latest completed trade returned by the venue's public event feed. A 94.00-cent Yes contract maps to a 94.00% market-implied probability before fees. Last trade is historical, even when recent. The next executable price sits at the live bid or ask. The implied probability explainer covers contract pricing and settlement value.

Where can traders trade Cy Young markets?

Kalshi and Polymarket both carry named-pitcher contracts for the 2026 AL and NL Cy Young awards. The separate league events make matched comparison possible. Coverage still varies by venue. A pitcher listed on only one book has no valid cross-venue spread, and an inactive contract should never be presented as a current price.

Kalshi publishes a transaction-fee method based on price and quantity. Polymarket publishes fee documentation and market-level fee records. Traders should inspect the live confirmation screen before placing an order. A small last-trade gap can be smaller than the bid-ask spread, and fees can change the all-in comparison.

Kairos aggregates both books and puts execution beside the comparison. Follow MLB MVP odds for the two position-player awards and MLB World Series odds for the championship market. Three season-long baseball entities. One connected cluster.

How do the 2026 Cy Young markets resolve?

Kalshi resolves a named contract Yes when that pitcher wins the listed league's Cy Young award. Its Schlittler rule states: "If Cam Schlittler wins the Pro Baseball American League Cy Young in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes." Kalshi uses the same named-pitcher test across the event.

Polymarket resolves each event to the player who wins the 2026 American League or National League Cy Young Award. Its rules state: "If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically." Polymarket identifies official Major League Baseball information as the resolution source, with credible reporting also permitted.

Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different Cy Young odds?

Separate order books produce different bids, asks, depth, and completed trades. Chris Sale's verified last trades differed by 2.60 percentage points. Misiorowski's differed by 0.10 points. Neither spread proves that two opposite orders can be executed at those prices. Available size and the live quotes control that result.

Traders must also match the league and settlement rule. An AL contract cannot be compared with an NL contract even when both carry the Cy Young label. Read the rule, inspect the current book, and account for fees before acting. Kairos keeps that work on one screen. Start trading on Kairos.

Sources

Kalshi AL Cy Young public event API Kalshi NL Cy Young public event API Polymarket 2026 AL Cy Young market Polymarket 2026 NL Cy Young market Kalshi fee documentation Polymarket fee documentation

Frequently asked questions

Cam Schlittler led the verified AL snapshots at 94.00% on Kalshi and 94.70% on Polymarket. Jacob Misiorowski led the NL at 92.00% and 91.90% as of September 12, 2026 at 20:33 UTC.
Yes. Kalshi lists named-pitcher contracts for the 2026 American League and National League Cy Young awards.
Yes. Polymarket lists separate 2026 winner events for the AL and NL Cy Young awards.
One Cy Young Award is given in the American League and one in the National League. Venue contracts settle against the named league award.
A 94.00-cent Yes contract represents a 94.00% market-implied probability before fees and pays one dollar if the venue resolves it Yes.

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