NFL playoff odds make the Buffalo Bills the favorite at 88% on Kalshi and 83% on Polymarket as of September 19, 2026 at 20:32 UTC. Buffalo has the widest matched cross-venue spread among the six teams below at 5 percentage points. These are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or trading advice.
October 3 market update
Buffalo leads NFL playoff odds at 91% on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of October 3, 2026 at 20:33 UTC. Seattle has the widest spread among the six matched teams at 5 percentage points. The opening paragraph records the September 19 snapshot. The table below contains the refreshed last trades and calculated venue spreads for the same six teams. The dated opening is retained as a historical snapshot. Use the October 3 table for this refresh; last trades can differ from executable bids and asks.
Both venues list team contracts on qualification for the 2026-27 postseason. The event lasts through the regular season, giving traders months of price changes to compare. Kairos puts Kalshi and Polymarket books together. Check Kairos data for the current bid and ask before trading.
What are the NFL playoff odds right now?
Buffalo last traded at 91 cents on Kalshi and 91 cents on Polymarket. Baltimore traded at 81 cents on Kalshi and 77 cents on Polymarket. Kansas City traded at 86 cents on Kalshi and 89 cents on Polymarket. Seattle carried the widest spread in the table at 5 percentage points in this snapshot.
| Contract | Kalshi price | Polymarket price | Implied probability | Cross-venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills make playoffs | 91.00 cents | 91.00 cents | 91.00% Kalshi, 91.00% Polymarket | 0.00 percentage points |
| Baltimore Ravens make playoffs | 81.00 cents | 77.00 cents | 81.00% Kalshi, 77.00% Polymarket | 4.00 percentage points |
| Kansas City Chiefs make playoffs | 86.00 cents | 89.00 cents | 86.00% Kalshi, 89.00% Polymarket | 3.00 percentage points |
| Los Angeles Rams make playoffs | 66.00 cents | 70.00 cents | 66.00% Kalshi, 70.00% Polymarket | 4.00 percentage points |
| San Francisco 49ers make playoffs | 78.00 cents | 80.00 cents | 78.00% Kalshi, 80.00% Polymarket | 2.00 percentage points |
| Seattle Seahawks make playoffs | 73.00 cents | 68.00 cents | 73.00% Kalshi, 68.00% Polymarket | 5.00 percentage points |
Each row uses the last trade returned by the venue's public API. A 76-cent Yes contract maps to a 76% implied probability before fees. A trader may face another price because the live bid and ask can move away from the last transaction. Read the contract price explainer before treating a last trade as an executable quote.
Where can traders trade NFL playoff markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket both list team-by-team qualification contracts for the 2026-27 NFL playoffs. Kalshi labels the event Pro Football Playoff Qualifiers. Polymarket labels it Team to Make Postseason. The teams match across the two events, which makes direct spread comparisons possible.
Kalshi publishes a price-based transaction fee method. Polymarket publishes fee documentation and market-specific records. Traders should check both order tickets because a visible spread does not guarantee a fill after fees. Book depth also matters when the posted quantity is smaller than the intended order.
Kairos shows the books in one trading terminal. Compare this page with NFL Super Bowl odds for the championship market and Heisman odds for the college football award market. Qualification, championship, award. Three season-long books.
How do the 2026 NFL playoff markets resolve?
Kalshi resolves a team contract Yes if the named team is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers. Its Rams rule states: "If Los Angeles R is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes." Kalshi names ESPN and the governing league as settlement sources for the event.
Polymarket resolves Yes if the listed team clinches a place in the 2026-27 NFL Playoffs under NFL rules. Its contract says: "Any tiebreaker will not be considered part of the NFL Playoffs." A mathematically eliminated team resolves No. The market also resolves No under its stated cancellation or January 24, 2027 deadline conditions.
Why do playoff prices differ between Kalshi and Polymarket?
Kalshi and Polymarket run separate order books. Different traders and resting orders produce different last trades. Seattle had the widest matched gap at 5 percentage points. Baltimore differed by 4 points, showing that the gap between the same two venues varies across individual team contracts.
Team naming also needs a careful match. Kalshi abbreviates Los Angeles R and San Francisco in its feed, while Polymarket uses the full franchise names. The settlement test on both events is postseason qualification for 2026-27. Contract wording decides the payout.
A playoff price can move after every game, injury report, and official clinching scenario. The table records six matched last trades at one timestamp. Traders still need the current size at the bid and ask before comparing an order across venues. Kairos combines those books with execution, which cuts the distance between finding a price difference and acting on the live market. Start trading on Kairos.
Sources
Kalshi playoff qualifier market Kalshi public event API Polymarket team postseason market Polymarket public event API Kalshi fee documentation Polymarket fee documentation