NFL playoff odds make the Los Angeles Rams the Kalshi favorite at 76% and the Buffalo Bills the Polymarket favorite at 76% as of September 11, 2026 at 20:34 UTC. San Francisco shows the widest matched cross-venue spread at 6 percentage points. These are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or trading advice.
Both venues list team contracts on qualification for the 2026-27 postseason. The event lasts through the regular season, giving traders months of price changes to compare. Kairos puts Kalshi and Polymarket books together. Check Kairos data for the current bid and ask before trading.
What are the NFL playoff odds right now?
The Rams last traded at 76 cents on Kalshi and 71 cents on Polymarket. Buffalo traded at 75 cents and 76 cents. Baltimore matched at 74 cents on both venues. San Francisco carried the widest spread in the table, with a 70-cent Kalshi last trade and a 64-cent Polymarket last trade.
| Contract | Kalshi price | Polymarket price | Implied probability | Cross-venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams make playoffs | 76.00 cents | 71.00 cents | 76.00% Kalshi, 71.00% Polymarket | 5.00 percentage points |
| Buffalo Bills make playoffs | 75.00 cents | 76.00 cents | 75.00% Kalshi, 76.00% Polymarket | 1.00 percentage point |
| Baltimore Ravens make playoffs | 74.00 cents | 74.00 cents | 74.00% on both venues | 0.00 percentage points |
| San Francisco 49ers make playoffs | 70.00 cents | 64.00 cents | 70.00% Kalshi, 64.00% Polymarket | 6.00 percentage points |
| Detroit Lions make playoffs | 67.00 cents | 66.00 cents | 67.00% Kalshi, 66.00% Polymarket | 1.00 percentage point |
| Seattle Seahawks make playoffs | 66.00 cents | 64.00 cents | 66.00% Kalshi, 64.00% Polymarket | 2.00 percentage points |
Each row uses the last trade returned by the venue's public API. A 76-cent Yes contract maps to a 76% implied probability before fees. A trader may face another price because the live bid and ask can move away from the last transaction. Read the contract price explainer before treating a last trade as an executable quote.
Where can traders trade NFL playoff markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket both list team-by-team qualification contracts for the 2026-27 NFL playoffs. Kalshi labels the event Pro Football Playoff Qualifiers. Polymarket labels it Team to Make Postseason. The teams match across the two events, which makes direct spread comparisons possible.
Kalshi publishes a price-based transaction fee method. Polymarket publishes fee documentation and market-specific records. Traders should check both order tickets because a visible spread does not guarantee a fill after fees. Book depth also matters when the posted quantity is smaller than the intended order.
Kairos shows the books in one trading terminal. Compare this page with NFL Super Bowl odds for the championship market and Heisman odds for the college football award market. Qualification, championship, award. Three season-long books.
How do the 2026 NFL playoff markets resolve?
Kalshi resolves a team contract Yes if the named team is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers. Its Rams rule states: "If Los Angeles R is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes." Kalshi names ESPN and the governing league as settlement sources for the event.
Polymarket resolves Yes if the listed team clinches a place in the 2026-27 NFL Playoffs under NFL rules. Its contract says: "Any tiebreaker will not be considered part of the NFL Playoffs." A mathematically eliminated team resolves No. The market also resolves No under its stated cancellation or January 24, 2027 deadline conditions.
Why do playoff prices differ between Kalshi and Polymarket?
Kalshi and Polymarket run separate order books. Different traders and resting orders produce different last trades. San Francisco's 6 point gap and the Rams' 5 point gap were the largest among these six teams. Baltimore matched at 74 cents, showing that the same two venues can agree on one contract and diverge on another.
Team naming also needs a careful match. Kalshi abbreviates Los Angeles R and San Francisco in its feed, while Polymarket uses the full franchise names. The settlement test on both events is postseason qualification for 2026-27. Contract wording decides the payout.
A playoff price can move after every game, injury report, and official clinching scenario. The table records six matched last trades at one timestamp. Traders still need the current size at the bid and ask before comparing an order across venues. Kairos combines those books with execution, which cuts the distance between finding a price difference and acting on the live market. Start trading on Kairos.
Sources
Kalshi playoff qualifier market Kalshi public event API Polymarket team postseason market Polymarket public event API Kalshi fee documentation Polymarket fee documentation