NBA Rookie of the Year odds make Caleb Wilson the Kalshi favorite at 24%, while AJ Dybantsa and Cameron Boozer share the Polymarket lead at 22%, as of September 10, 2026 at 20:39 UTC. The widest spread among the six matched players is 4 percentage points on Caleb Wilson. These are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or trading advice.
Kalshi and Polymarket both list 2026-27 Rookie of the Year contracts. The favorites differ, and so do the prices. Kairos puts the two books together so traders can compare the same player before placing an order. Prices move. Check the live Kairos market dashboard for the latest book.
What are the NBA Rookie of the Year odds right now?
Caleb Wilson last traded at 24 cents on Kalshi and 20 cents on Polymarket. AJ Dybantsa showed the opposite pattern at 20 cents and 22 cents. Cameron Boozer traded at 19 cents on Kalshi and 22 cents on Polymarket. Four players sit within 8 percentage points on Kalshi, so the market has no majority favorite.
| Contract | Kalshi price | Polymarket price | Implied probability | Cross-venue spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson | 24.00 cents | 20.00 cents | 24.00% Kalshi, 20.00% Polymarket | 4.00 percentage points |
| AJ Dybantsa | 20.00 cents | 22.00 cents | 20.00% Kalshi, 22.00% Polymarket | 2.00 percentage points |
| Cameron Boozer | 19.00 cents | 22.00 cents | 19.00% Kalshi, 22.00% Polymarket | 3.00 percentage points |
| Darryn Peterson | 18.00 cents | 16.00 cents | 18.00% Kalshi, 16.00% Polymarket | 2.00 percentage points |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 8.00 cents | 5.00 cents | 8.00% Kalshi, 5.00% Polymarket | 3.00 percentage points |
| Mikel Brown Jr. | 4.00 cents | 2.10 cents | 4.00% Kalshi, 2.10% Polymarket | 1.90 percentage points |
The verified snapshot uses Kalshi's last trade and Polymarket's last trade from their public APIs. A 24-cent Yes contract represents a 24% implied probability before fees. The number on screen can differ from the next executable price. The Kalshi price and probability explainer shows how bids, asks, and payouts connect.
Where can traders trade NBA rookie markets?
Kalshi and Polymarket both carry player contracts for the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year. Kalshi's live event contained 18 outcomes in the public response. Polymarket's event contained a broader field, including an Other outcome. Coverage matters because an omitted player cannot be bought through a named contract on that venue.
Fees can vary by venue and contract. Kalshi publishes a price-based transaction-fee method and displays the charge before confirmation. Polymarket's public Rookie of the Year records include a sports fee schedule. Traders should inspect the order ticket for the current fee and compare it with the visible spread.
Kairos combines venue data and execution in one terminal. Compare this market with the sibling NBA MVP odds and NBA Finals odds pages. Two venues. Six matched players. One timestamp for the comparison.
How does the NBA Rookie of the Year market resolve?
Kalshi resolves each player contract Yes if that player wins the Pro Basketball Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 season. Its Caleb Wilson rule says: "If Caleb Wilson wins the Pro Basketball Rookie of the Year award in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes." The venue applies the same test to each named player.
Polymarket resolves the event to the player who wins the Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NBA regular season. Its rules say: "If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically." If no winner is declared by April 30, 2027 at 11:59 p.m. ET, the event resolves to Other under the published rule.
Why do the rookie odds differ between Kalshi and Polymarket?
Separate order books produce separate prices. Each venue has its own traders, resting orders, and depth. A last trade can also lag the current market. Caleb Wilson's 24-cent Kalshi last trade sat above the 20-cent bid in the same API response, which shows why traders need the live bid and ask before acting.
The settlement language differs at the edges. Polymarket names an Other outcome and a deadline for a cancelled or delayed season. Kalshi's individual player rule states the award test directly. Traders should price those differences along with fees and liquidity. Contract text decides the payout.
Sources
Kalshi 2026-27 Rookie of the Year market Kalshi public event API Polymarket 2026-27 Rookie of the Year market Polymarket public event API Kalshi fee documentation Polymarket fee documentation