CLARITY Act Polymarket traders price a 29.5% chance that H.R. 3633 becomes law in 2026 as of September 14. The Senate is scheduled to vote on updated market-structure text on September 15. The contract resolves Yes only if both chambers pass the measure and the president signs it by December 31, 2026.
What are the current CLARITY Act Polymarket odds?
The live Polymarket contract showed Yes at 29.5 cents and No at 70.5 cents on September 14, 2026. Traders had put $16,379,128 into the market, with $265,173 in displayed liquidity. Those prices move as orders arrive, so check the contract before trading.
A 29.5-cent Yes share pays $1 if the contract resolves Yes and $0 if it resolves No. The price represents the market's current implied probability before fees and trading costs. It does not guarantee a 29.5% objective chance. One large order can move a thin book, and every trader can be wrong together.
This market has already repriced sharply during the legislative process. That movement is the point of a prediction market. Traders react to committee votes, revised language, whip counts, and scheduling changes as they happen. The Polymarket smart money guide explains how to inspect positions without treating a large wallet as proof.
What must happen for the CLARITY Act market to resolve Yes?
Polymarket's rules require the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, H.R. 3633, to pass both chambers of Congress and receive the president's signature by 11:59 p.m. ET on December 31, 2026. A Senate vote alone cannot settle the contract Yes. Congress must finish the full legislative path before the deadline.
The House passed H.R. 3633 in July 2025. The Senate Banking Committee advanced its version 15 to 9 in May 2026. Senator Cynthia Lummis released updated text on September 10 and said the Senate would vote on September 15. Any Senate amendment can create more work because the House and Senate must agree on identical text before the bill reaches the president.
That sequence gives traders four live checkpoints: the scheduled Senate vote, agreement between the chambers, delivery to the president, and a signature before year-end. Read the resolution rules before reading the price. A market can price political momentum correctly and still resolve No because one required step misses the deadline.
What changed in the September 10 CLARITY Act text?
The September 10 update addressed registration and Bank Secrecy Act treatment for some non-decentralized finance protocols, limited the DeFi provisions to spot and cash digital-commodity transactions, and clarified credit-union powers. Lummis said the prediction-market concern was addressed by specifying that the DeFi provisions apply only to spot and cash transactions.
That distinction matters because prediction-market contracts can sit under a different regulatory analysis from spot crypto. The bill still concerns digital-asset market structure more broadly. Traders should read the actual text and official updates instead of assuming every crypto provision applies to every event contract.
The Senate Banking Committee describes the bill as a division of federal responsibility for digital assets, with roles for the CFTC and SEC. Committee members disagree on the safeguards and illicit-finance provisions. The vote decides whether the latest compromise advances. It does not erase those policy disputes.
How should traders read CLARITY Act odds?
Traders should read the CLARITY Act price as a live order-book consensus tied to exact settlement rules. Check the spread, available depth, recent trades, and resolution source before taking a position. A headline can change the midpoint while leaving little size available at that price. Execution determines the price you actually receive.
Separate the political thesis from the contract thesis. A trader can believe Congress will eventually pass digital-asset legislation and still buy No if the December 31 deadline looks too tight. The contract asks whether this named measure becomes law during 2026. It does not ask whether similar legislation passes later.
Compare new information against the path that remains. Committee passage removed one obstacle. Updated text removed another. The Senate vote, chamber agreement, and presidential action still control settlement. Event contracts carry real market risk, including a total loss on the losing side. Review how prediction markets work before trading deadline-driven legislation.
Where can traders follow and trade the market?
Traders can follow the contract on Polymarket and verify legislative events through official Senate and House sources. Kairos lets traders watch prediction-market order flow with sub-second data, aggregation, and low-latency execution. The same terminal covers Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict.fun in one book.
Political markets can move on one schedule update. Open Kairos before the vote. Price the next step. Manage the risk. See you in the order books.